The DTI has just released its microgeneration strategy. I haven’t read it cover to cover yet but there doesn’t appear to be any revolutionary initiatives. The biggest change – increasing the budget of the Low Carbon Buildings programme to £80m over three years – was announced in last week’s Budget. Positive steps include the creation of an accreditation scheme and codes of practice for all microgeneration technologies and the possibility of a field trial for smart metering and microgeneration.
Most of the measures though are just “explore” this and “investigate” that. I know it’s just a strategy but still, it would be nice to see something a bit more tangible. For example, one of the steps being taken is:
DTI will undertake further research into consumer behaviour in relation to microgeneration technologies and, in particular, what drives early-adopter purchase decisions.
Why? There’s lots of research on why people are early-adopters. Labay and Kinnear wrote about the adoption of solar energy systems in detail back in 1981.1 Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovation was first published nearly 45 years ago and the main points it raises – i.e. that successful innovations are reasonably compatible with existing systems and consumers can observe and try new technologies before adopting – are still relevant. Other work on consumer behaviour, e.g. the theory of planned behaviour, can help understand the psychological characteristics of early adopters.
But the main barrier, as the report notes, is that people don’t want to pay a large up-front cost. This is perhaps most important point because although some early adopters will justify a microgeneration purchase with a range of non-economic motives, most households will take one look at the payback period and say no thanks. My research has found that this is true even for those households who are most likely to become early-adopters, i.e. technophiles with a keen interest in the impact of their energy use. Among the general public, the situation is worse and economists have found that energy efficiency decisions often involve discount rates of 20% or more (payback periods of less than 5 years).
All of this suggests that further research on early adopters misses the point. We know enough to understand why people choose to adopt new technologies and for most households, it’s a question of money. Therefore unless wads of cash or alternative financing mechanisms (via energy service companies, microgeneration mortgages, or other measures) are offered, people won’t act.
As a side note, the government released its Climate Change Review today as well. Looks like the 20% CO2 cut by 2010 won’t happen and there are only a few additional measures proposed to get things back on track. Bit of an underwhelming day really.
1 Labay, DG, Kinnear, TC (1981) “Exploring the consumer decision process in the adoption of solar energy systems”. Journal of Consumer Research 8: 271-278.
