Another new paper out, this time looking at urban carbon reduction strategies. Working with Carlos Calderon at Newcastle University, we investigated how a goal-oriented optimization model could inform urban energy and carbon reduction strategies in contrast to current practice, which relies mainly on ad hoc bottom-up models. In particular we focused on the need for models that could capture spatial dependencies in both energy supply and demand, as well as parameter uncertainty.
The results allow us to offer robust policy advice, such as installing loft insulation and cavity wall insulation over the next ten years, because it is cost- and carbon-effective in almost all future scenarios. Here’s the key figure, with the maximum rates of penetration indicated by the dashed line and the grey areas showing the interquartile range:
The abstract:
Local authorities often rely upon urban energy and carbon modelling tools to develop mitigation policies and strategies that will deliver reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper the UK example of Newcastle-upon-Tyne is used to critique current practice, noting that important features of urban energy systems are often omitted by bottom-up tools including interactions between technologies, spatial disaggregation of demand, and the ability to pursue over-arching policy goals like cost minimization. An alternative optimization-based approach is then described and applied to the Newcastle case, at the scale of both the whole city and the South Heaton district, and using Monte Carlo techniques to address policy uncertainty. The results show that this new method can help policy makers draw more robust policy conclusions, sensitive to spatial variations in energy demand and capturing the interactions between developments in the national energy system and local policy options. Further work should focus on improving our understanding of local building stocks and energy demands so as to better assess the potential of new technologies and policies.
Keirstead, J., & Calderon, C. (2012). Capturing spatial effects, technology interactions, and uncertainty in urban energy and carbon models: Retrofitting newcastle as a case-study Energy Policy DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.058




